Building Fortress of Future – Indian Economy

Every Economy is built with great aspirations  and  character  to nurture  its present  and  future Generations with ample growth and sustainability.  It  enshrines  the  beliefs and ideals of great leaders  and brings alive the very notion they lived and died for  – The Magnificent  India.  Indian economy  has seen numerous up’s and down’s  post Independence.  Over the years of evolution , healthy relationship between  Fiscal and Monetary policy  spurred growth and sustenance respectively.

Every  year,  economic survey released by Finance department  summarizes  parameters  related to  Growth and sustenance levels . Multiple parameters  including performance ratios, sector – wise growth, Correlation factors relating to development indices, country specific  Revenue – to – GDP Ratios, Fiscal Deficit, World Bank Loans, Special Economic  statuses, subsidies  are discussed and debated . While many of these are important , Tax(Revenue) to GDP  is considered simple  to calculate  and  holds direct implication on effective administration &  governance of any country. In case of India , this ratio is 16.6% for 2015-16 which is “POOR” compared to OECD (Organization for Economic  cooperation and development ) standard of 30 . India also stands lowest in BRICS  while Brazil leads at 35.6%   .

Indian tax earnings are not growing at a required pace along with GDP. This has become a huge problem  and stifled growth in a country with the highest  Demographic Dividend. Tax earnings are single major source of revenues followed by capital receipts and interests. Fin. Ministry is serious about this  and recent budget focuses on bringing more players in Tax payers ambit . The proposal looks simple but  infrastructural and technical  challenges are  looming  in its implementation.But once completed, there will be quick results. Some problems are structural which lead to this crisis and seek  solution in long term basis  like…
1) Low per capita Income: Regulatory Bank  opined India would cross Rs. 1 lac ( $1700) GDP per capita mark  in FY 2016-17 . It nearly doubled after 7 years ,but not enough when compared with others in  BRICS League.Russia ,Brazil and China averages above  $8000 GDP per capita  where as South africa is just above $5000 mark. More Disappointing is Non-transparency  in earned Incomes .According to 2015-16 survey ,Out of 3.7 crore  Individual tax payers only  20.5%  declared income above 5 lpa.75%  individuals in this income range are employed. In the year 2014-15 out of total tax collected 4.46 lac cr as revenue, 25% (1.13 lac cr) is collected  from  64 Individuals only.

2) SME’s Non – Declaration : In Total 13.94 Lac firms registered under companies act .Only 2.9 lac firms submitted positive revenues hence filed tax and nearly 2.7 lac firms showed “zero Income” for FY 2015-16. 5.6 crore Individuals are into  Small businesses and only 1.8 cr enterprises have filed  Tax  in FY 2015-16

3) Service Tax : New services are added every year under taxation. But, services industry contribution to total tax is only  5% out of their major proportion  of  60% in GDP. Tax exemptions in agriculture for FY 2016-17 clocked 2.31  and exemptions in other sectors is depreciating  total sector contribution.

Recent  steps in curbing corruption &  black-money , also  Infrastructure setup using Technology is majorly aimed  at solving  Non- structural problems

1) Demonetization:  Bringing more transparency in bank accounts , Incomes and Transactions will repair the economy  and benefit all classes. Announcement  of currency ban  on Nov 8th showed some startling results. Tax Income collected within a month after announcement is nearly equal to collection for whole financial year i.e.,  around  3-4 lac crore. Another 80k cr in the form of Bad Loan repayments.Stricter norms set on corruption and black-money  will provide major boost  for growth in the long term

2) Digitalization:  Jan- dhan-  yojana,  Aadhaar , Mobile  (JAM) triple point formula for direct subsidy transfer to farmers and beneficiaries is set to address financial deficit  appropriately In  2015-16, 9.75 cr in the form of  DTS(Direct Tax Subsidy ) is transferred to 100 million bank accounts. Digital platforms for facilitating transactions are set to bring SME’s  under Tax purview and boost Tax Income . DTS  is a huge implication for offsetting  leakages and benefitting  farmers and its rightful  holders  under this sector which draws majorly 2.4 lac crores every year as subsidies.


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